We can't wait for Direct Air Capture to solve climate change.
Exploring the potential of consumer choice, collective action, and ways to support a transition to a sustainable future.
Oil is pretty great. Fossil fuel energy and products are a marvel of our society. I’m flying with my family burning up some jet fuel right now. Is this bad? I think so because we know it is true that:
Temperatures are rising and delicate ecosystems are being disrupted
Atmospheric and oceanic CO2 is at an all time high
Humans are responsible for the imbalance of CO2
Would restoring this human-caused CO2 imbalance heal our planet? There is no way of knowing, but it makes sense to at least try. The main strategies to fix the CO2 imbalance are to remove it from the air and to replace what is causing the CO2 emissions with more sustainable options.
Let’s dig into these strategies and examine if either approach can reasonably make a difference, and how we can best implement or support those approaches.
Removing CO2 from the air
Removing CO2 from the air and stashing it in the earth’s crust is called Direct Air Capture (DAC). People are getting pretty excited about the potential of DAC to make an actual difference in climate change. The main reason for this excitement is that leading DAC companies like CarbonCapture Inc (CarbonCapture) are throwing around huge numbers. CarbonCapture just announced plans to build the world’s largest carbon capture facility, Project Bison. The goal of this project is to remove 5 million tons of CO2 from the air per year and stash it in underground rock by 2030. How much is 5 million tons of CO2 per year? It is nearly equivalent to the same amount of CO2 that is produced from the 1.75 million dairy cows that are in California. That is the same CO2 removal capacity as 15% of the Amazon rainforest (83.3 million hectares), which oddly enough is just about the same amount that humans have destroyed for agriculture, mining, and urbanization.
Sounds great! But who exactly is paying for all this underground mineralized CO2 and why? It turns out energy companies and other big CO2 emitters are funding the growth of DAC companies. For example, Occidental (OXY), a major player in the oil and gas space, purchased DAC system developer Carbon Engineering Ltd. for $1.1B and coordinated an additional $550M of investment to build sizable DAC plants in Texas. Construction is underway for the Texas plant, and estimates are for the site to be functional by mid-2025. Investments from venture arms of energy companies and oil-rich sovereign wealth funds are driving growth in the DAC space. This is reflected in CarbonCapture's recently announced $80M Series A.
Aside from helping the planet, the reason why oil companies and CO2 emitters are investing in DAC is because of looming taxes and regulations on CO2 emissions that will require them to either purchase offsets or pay additional taxes. Offsets are basically coupons that major CO2 emitters can purchase to pay less taxes. DAC companies and other organizations can earn offsets by removing CO2. While it is great to see investors tied to the oil and gas leading investments into climate solutions, we should also consider that this industry spends more than $100 million each year on lobbying efforts.
(Editor's note: Carbon offset also has its own problems, as outlined in a recent study demonstrating that up to 90% of carbon offset credits purchased by big brands like Shell, Disney and Gucci may be "almost worthless". Read our article exposing greenwashing for a deeper dive.)
Cleaning up CO2 via Direct Air Capture is promising, but it relies on charity or government incentives, and it will be impossible to prove whether or not it has a meaningful impact on the climate.
Replacing with help from government
Another great strategy is to replace high-CO2 emitting products with more sustainable alternatives. Government incentives can be an incredible driver of this transition. Tax incentives are one powerful tool that governments can use to provide an economic advantage to sustainable alternatives. Changing from an old technology to a new typically has costs associated with the switch, and new technologies are generally more expensive when they first launch. Although petroleum products and energy are cheap when we buy them, there is a great environmental cost associated with their use. By degrading the environment, high-pollution products create burdens that seep into every aspect of society. This society-level impact is one reason that it makes sense for governmental agencies to intervene and use economic levers to drive sustainability. Governments can level the economic playing field for sustainable replacements by lowering the price of sustainable solutions (incentives) or raising the price of oil-based products (taxes). These efforts can potentially tip the scale towards mass adoption of sustainable technologies. As voters, we can harness collective action to drive governments to make a larger impact.
A quintessential example of governments driving this transition is the US Environmental Protection Agency's Renewable Fuel Standard, which requires that a certain amount of gasoline be derived from biofuels. Taking into account taxes and subsidies, gas mixed with ethanol is less expensive than 100% oil-derived gas. 100% oil-derived gas is sometimes called “pure gas” or “clear gas” at the pump and costs more.
This form of government intervention is amazing because (1) we consume LOTS of gas, and (2) 10% ethanol biofuel works exactly the same as 100% oil-based gas. Ethanol as a fuel is significantly more environmentally friendly than petroleum. Ethanol is produced by fermenting sugars, which is derived from corn. Corn makes the sugar from sun and CO2, so that is a huge win! Ethanol burns cleaner too, releasing up to 43% less greenhouse gasses than gasoline. Since we use a lot of gas, this transition will make a huge difference. It is estimated that adoption of biofuels accounts for a reduction in millions of tons of CO2 each year.
Governments can make a huge impact by using taxes and incentives to make greener alternatives cost the same. However, these solutions depend on governments controlling pricing and are at the mercy of regulators and the powerful companies that influence them. Historically, government price intervention does not produce lasting customer savings, as prices in regulated industries tend to inflate proportionally with subsidies. Furthermore, government intervention to prop us one solution (like biofuel) could unintentionally stifle alternative solutions that may be better (electric vehicles).
Removing and Replacing in the free market
If sustainable replacements can outcompete high-polluting products without government intervention, there is potential for a lasting and scalable solution.
Let’s dig into the current offerings for sustainable alternatives and how they measure up to the products they seek to replace. We have to think big here and make sure that the impact is worth the effort. For example, replacing plastic bags with reusable totes sounds like a great idea, but the impact did not match the effort. The problem with totes is that they are not a 1:1 replacement to plastic bags. Plastic bags are still the easiest, lowest cost, and most convenient solution. Without considering the environmental impact, stores giving away plastic bags to shoppers is a good system for getting stuff home. I try to use totes, but can’t avoid plastic bags. They are free, always available, and work great. Even with forceful mandates like plastic bag bans and great tote options, plastic bag consumption has not gone down.
What about sustainable products that work just as well but cost more?
Many people are willing to pay more for eco-friendly alternatives, provided that the products meet their needs. The cost increase for sustainable products is often called the “green premium.” This product category can make a massive positive impact. Take car tires as an example – Tires account for a significant portion of the microplastics that are found in the ocean, and are a major contributor to GHG emissions. Responding to customer demand, Pirelli is now offering tires that are made from at least 50% sustainable materials and are branding these as premium products. Bridgestone, Goodyear, and other leading tire companies are investing heavily into sustainable materials for tires. Pyrum is leading the charge with chemical recycling of tires to enable re-use. These tires won’t necessarily work better and they will likely cost more, but consumer demand is driving innovation. Premium sustainable car tires can have massive potential for positive environmental impact. Thankfully, we are seeing this pattern over and over again. Greener alternatives are gaining market share in many high-waste categories such as cleaning products, apparel, lawn care, cosmetics, and food.
Green premium products should exist, but the total impact will always be limited by price competition. When it comes to replacing environmentally damaging products with greener alternatives, the best strategy is simply to make the sustainable products just as good or even better for the consumer.
What about sustainable products that work just as well and cost the same?
Solugen is a great example of sustainable alternatives that do not increase costs. Using enzymes and catalysts to sustainably produce industrial chemicals, they are taking the chemicals industry head-on. Solugen’s products are not sold at a higher price, and are chemically indistinguishable from the petroleum-derived competition. In many ways, Solugen’s approach is better than the existing chemicals industry. Their enzyme-powered platform enables room for constant improvement and can be decentralized to reduce costs associated transporting chemicals over large areas. As of this writing, Solugen is making significant amounts of water treatment chemicals in Houston, TX. Many municipalities “import” these chemicals to treat their own water plants. It is usually not feasible or desired to make chemicals locally, but every city needs clean water. Aside from cost, transporting chemicals can have horrible consequences. Solugen’s Bioforges can bring the chemicals industry to new regions, creating jobs, and benefiting the climate.
The chemicals industry is a great target because of the large market size ($500B) and the massive potential for reducing CO2 emissions. The chemical industry accounts for an estimated 20% of global industrial greenhouse gas emissions. This translates to roughly 1.5 times the combined emissions of the world's transportation sector, encompassing cars, trucks, ships, trains, and airplanes.
Providing an equivalent product eliminates adoption challenges and switching costs for customers. Solugen’s scale is only constrained by their ability to invest in infrastructure and to provide a compelling reason for customers to switch. Many companies and municipalities do have self-directed goals to reduce their carbon footprint. A stronger motivator for adoption will be if Solugen can offer an equivalent product at a lower price.
In the food space, palm oil is a notable target for disruption by a sustainable solution. Palm oil is a $60B industry. It is primarily derived from harvesting palm trees that are cultivated in lands cleared from rainforests. Despite efforts to avoid it, the palm oil industry is disrupting delicate ecosystems and causing significant environmental harm. Emerging companies like C16 Biosciences are creating sustainable palm oil from fermentation. If they can match the price of palm tree-derived palm oil, it will be a no-brainer for companies like Nestlé to use sustainable palm oil for Nutella and other popular products that require this ingredient.
Future sustainable alternatives will outcompete on price and function
The next generation of sustainable alternatives will be simply better than the current state-of-the-art. There are not a ton of examples to point to as of this writing, but lots of reasons to be optimistic. Most high-pollution items are popular because they work well and people love them. A large portion of the population genuinely enjoys eating industrially farmed meat, getting around faster with gas fueled cars, and having cheaper, stronger, and lighter products. Products that are harvested from nature (including oil) do have limits that can be overcome with engineering and innovation. Recent technical advances and emerging products provide reasons to be optimistic about a sustainable future.
New technologies do tend to cost more and have a limited feature set. If that initial feature is compelling enough, the products can mature into mass adoption. In the sustainability realm, the first products will either cost more and work slightly better, or they will have the same function but cost less.
My favorite example of a better-with-biology product that is commercially available is the glowing plants from Light Bio. Like many synbio enthusiasts, I am eagerly waiting for delivery of their first available product, the Firefly Petunia (pictured below). Neoplants are days away from launching their genetically modified plants that can clean the air in your home. Although these initial products will not likely have a meaningful impact on the environment, it could lead to a more beautiful and sustainable future that minimizes energy waste by providing light and air-filtration through plants.
Lanzatech is a great example of using technology to create sustainable alternatives (with equivalent function) at lower cost. They aim to utilize CO2 (cleaning the air) and transform it into valuable products such as LanzaJet aviation fuels.
While they have made incredible progress, LanzaTech’s approach is still in development and supported by government grants and climate-focused investors and early-adopters. The transition from horse-and-buggy to gas-powered-car to EV captures the story of how we as a society can progress towards a sustainable future.
We replaced horse-and-buggy with gas powered cars because they work better and are cheaper. EVs have the potential to do the same. The ultimate “driver” of a sustainable future will be the consumer that chooses sustainable products because they are better..
The ultimate transition to sustainable products is better products at a lower price.
What can we do right now?
While we wait for better and less expensive sustainable products to become available, there are many ways to accelerate the transition to sustainability. Record high temperatures, changing ecosystems, and increasing frequency of extreme weather should give all the motivation we need to support. We can influence politicians at the voting booth by supporting candidates and referendums that tip the balance towards sustainable utilities and consumption. If we can afford it, we can pay the green premium and support new products that deliver sustainability without compromising performance.
Aside from consumer choices and election voting, we can invest in future climate solutions with our money, time, and talent. Time, talent, and money can come in all shapes and sizes. Luckily there are a number of solutions for those of us with limited funds and time, and plenty of opportunities for us to apply existing talents. There are a growing number of career opportunities with companies focused on climate, even offering remote work. Breakthrough Energy has a fantastic fellowship and programs to support talented scientists and business leaders who want to become part of the solution to climate change.
There are a number of great organizations that empower professionals to make a positive difference. This is especially true for the research space. In order for research to have an impact, it must make its way from the lab to the real world in the form of products and services. If you are a scientist interested in becoming an entrepreneur and creating your own climate solutions, check out Activate, Nucleate (undergrad), Wilbe (technical founders, active in the UK), and Climate Capital Bio (under-represented). Terra.do and Coursera have courses that offer training to develop skills relevant to companies fighting climate change. Artists and creatives can get involved too! Aula Futures has amazing free programs to teach biodesign and Ideas Matter has a fellowship that supports scientific writing.
Now it is possible for anyone, regardless of time or money limitations, to support researchers and startup companies at the earliest stages with organizations like ValleyDAO. ValleyDAO is an open community of synbio enthusiasts that want to help the climate by pooling funding and contributing their time and talent towards synthetic biology research that can help the planet. The cool thing about DeSci organizations like ValleyDAO is that there are practically no barriers to entry. You can show up (for free), meet people, buy a governance token with voting rights (if you choose, but not required), and become an active contributor to projects that excite you. For example, ValleyDAO community members helped fund research at Imperial College of London aimed at lowering the cost of manufacturing truly sustainable palm oil.